View Pick PackagesLearn About the Weekender Horse Racing Picks Package

Tips for Horse Racing Betting:
The Importance of Track Variance When Picking a Winner

The term “track variance” is derived from the word “vary”. As this applies to horse racing, it is used to describe the extent to which the track’s surface varies from normal. For example, depending on a number of conditions, the track might be faster of slower than normal. In past performances, a simple number is used to describe the track variance for each day with a number representing a fast, normal, or slow racing surface. This is supposed to offer horseplayers some basic tips for horse racing betting as it is intended to allow them to determine what conditions existed during a given race.

Although this system seems good in theory, these track variance numbers are often almost completely useless when it comes to actually offering any tips for horse racing betting.

Past Performance Track Variance Numbers:
Are These Useful Tips for Horse Racing Betting or Useless Numbers

Tips for Horse Racing Betting | Understanding Track VarianceAt Horse Race Handicappers, while we believe that it is true that racetrack surfaces can be slower or faster than expects on some days, we have found that the track variance numbers from past performances are not really very useful tips for horse racing handicappers. This is because often races are faster or slower than expected simply because the group of horses that ran in a given race was a faster or slower group of horses. Therefore, it is simply not possible to accurately assign a number to indicate this one aspect of the past event. However, to horseplayers who are always looking for the new tips for horse racing winner selection, these numbers offer a hope in the never ending search to find the magical, mathematical formula to determine winning horses.

Those who use track variance numbers as one of their key tricks or tips for horse racing selection, will often move a horse’s chances up or down for a given days race after finding out whether the track surface on which the horse last raced was fast or slow. For example, they may say that if the track was given a “3” for fast, then it was the track that was responsible for the final race time. Similarly, is a horse raced on a track that was slower than normal, ranked “2”, then the horse may be given a better advantage in the next race. This is because they assume that it was the slow track, which resulted in the slower racing time, and therefore, it had nothing to do with the horse’s ability.

How to Use Track Variance When Picking a Horse Racing Winner

At Horse Race Handicappers, we do agree that track variance can be an important factor when determining the winning horses in a given race, and we do believe that if analyzed correctly track variance can part of a good strategy for determining winning horses. Therefore, we maintain our own extensive database regarding such events and track condition information for many races and tracks across the country.

However, we believe that the better tip for horse racing winner selection is actually opposite of what is traditionally thought. Therefore, we believe that if a horse previously ran on a slower than normal track, it will have been more tiring than normal. Therefore, if any adjustments should be made from this information, it should be to downgrade his chances of winning the next time that he runs because it will have taken more out of the horse, in terms of conditioning and energy to run on the slower track. Consequently, then a horse, which previously ran on a faster racing surface, should be expected to perform better in today’s race as the opposite effect occurred. Therefore, the horse was able to conserve energy on an easier track.

Learn More About our Tips for Horse Racing Betting Selection

This is just one of the many special techniques and tips for horse racing winner selection that we consider when determining our winning horse racing picks and selections. To learn more about the things we consider when making our selections for horse racing betting see some of our Powerful Handicapping Angles.

What Makes Us Horse Racing Experts?

  1. We use information that people at the track don't have
  2. Utilize the combined efforts of our expert staff
  3. We collect and analyze rare information not often published from past performances
  4. We provide our clients with a daily comprehensive list of the horses and acceptable odds we will be wagering
  5. We continually monitor all mid-level and large tracks currently running and only wager on horses when we have positive, non-publicized information on a horse