Monthly Archives: January 2013

Kentucky Derby Betting

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January each year begins the official start of the “road to the Derby”. The highly anticipated derby qualifying races begin. Kentucky derby betting is an art all to its own. The shear size of the mutual pools make the annual “DERBY DAY” a highly anticipated  event at the Whitley Group. Kentucky Derby betting is, admittedly, one of the most difficult of all the races we will handicap the entire year. Get it right and it can make a horse player profitable for the year. The difficult part of betting the Kentucky Derby is the shear size of the field, 20 horses will run,and the fact the runners are all very talented 3 year olds and all are capable of improved performances.

Kentucky Derby Betting and Future Wagers

We at The Whitley Group are always active participates in the Kentucky Derby betting future pools. Please visit the results page on the web-site and see the future wagers the Whitley Girls had on last years Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another.  Many of our clients wager large amounts in the future wager pools and we are proud to offer our clients professional advise on the selection of horses to be considered for their future wagers. It’s nice to see our clients make winning wagers at 30-1. Kentucky Derby betting gives us and our clients a great opportunity to truly “crush” both days, the Oaks on the first Friday in May and the Kentucky Derby,the first Saturday in May.

Kentucky Derby Betting and the Winners Profile

Much has been written about how to handicap the Kentucky Derby. Once again the “numbers” guys are out in full force. Fortunately the mutual pools are overflowing with money from handicappers still using Beyer speed figures,track bias, or trainer stats in their Kentucky Derby betting. They did not have the derby winner last year or for the last many years and continue to search for the next Kentucky Derby winner in all those statistics. The 2013 Kentucky Derby winner will be a lightly raced, improving colt that runs off the pace. Many of the horses in the starting gate will fit this profile. The separating of these horses is the focus of many months of committed professional work we at The Whitley Group provide for our clients. The results, all of which are public,validate the success of the groups combined efforts.

Kentucky Derby Betting and the Construction of Winning Wagers

The proper construction of Kentucky Derby wagers is perhaps the least understood aspect of Kentucky Derby betting. The field size of 20 prevents most players from using the “all” button. We at the Whitley Group maintain extensive profiles of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place Kentucky Derby finishers. These profiles which are primarily pace based have proven reliable in isolating the likely exacta, trifecta and superfecta horses in the horses we recommend for our clients. The winner of this years Kentucky Derby,as we said before will come from off the pace.The exacta and trifecta finishers will be determined by their response to the pace set by the early leaders.

Horse Betting: Do Trainers and Jockeys Make Bets?

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Most horseplayers can be easily categorized as to handicapping types. They often refer to themselves as class, speed, trainer/jockey, or angle players etc. Most gravitate between several different systems. I suspect they have met with some limited success with what ever system they are pursuing. Most that we talk with believe they are very close to figuring out a magic system of picking winners in their horse betting. We know of no such magic system. Most seasoned horseplayers have settled into more traditional handicapping methods.Most often their system is a blending of several of their personal favorite ways of picking winners. Most continue to lose, often blaming the jockey or trainer when their perfectly handicapped horse finishes 5th, beaten 8 lengths.

HORSE BETTING IS HARD WORK

To win consistently in horse betting you must think in ways the others at the track do not. No one can handicap a race in the 20 minutes between races. The preparation time to accurately handicap a horse race must begin long before the actual race day. We employ a full time staff of four and pride ourselves on our ability to offer our clients 10-12 races a day from as many as 20 racetracks we are currently monitoring. Speed figures, trainer stats, track or post bias followers do not win on a consistent bases. No combination of numbers or angles will lead you to consistent winners in horse betting. You must out think your competition. We suggest you spend several days at your local track and get to know your competition. Your competition is the other people at the track. Do not make any bets just observe and listen. Learn to go to the track and not make a wager. If you master the art of passing races you are well on your way to becoming a consistent winner when horse betting. The others at the track or OTB cannot do it. They bet too many races.

Horse Betting and CORRUPTION

We are often asked if horse races are fixed. I will tell you what I know about it. The vast majority of horse races are run without any form of corruption. Most times rumors of over medication or jockey influenced results are weeks or months old and are not of any value to the horseplayer. Interesting yes, profitable no! The exception is a horse not asked to run or allowed to run. Most trainers do bet on horses. Most jockeys do bet on horses. They don’t make very many bets and they only bet when they know something the others at the track do not know. I hope by now this is starting to sound familiar. The back stretch whispers you have heard about are usually the trainers efforts to down play,as much as possible, his enthusiasm for a particular horse. Trainers know there are many variable that effect a horses performance on any given day. Backstretch rumors are rumors. Trainers or jockeys horse betting wagers do not always or even often win. When they do win they win at big odds. I don’t know any trainer or jockey that handicaps horse races to place a bet. We at the Whitley Group do not “handicap” horse races. We use information not found in the past performances. You cannot win if you use the same information every one at the track uses. The information found in past performances, the magical numerical formula does not exist. Remember that if the next race winner were hidden some where in all those numbers Bill Gates would include it on his next “windows” release and our great game of horse betting would be no more.

Horse Race Bets

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Happy New Year from the Whitley Girls! We are often asked what type of bets we recommend our clients make. We focus mainly on win, exacta and trifecta wagers when placing horse race bets. The temptation of pick three, four, and pick six wagers are something we try to discourage our clients from making. The Whitley Group wagers are based on inside information or our own information we have collected. Simply put, if we don’t know anything that is not found in the past performances we do no wager on the race. The “guaranteed” pools of many pick four and pick six pools are the currant rage at many large race tracks. Lottery mentality or a major financial score is the motivator.

Placing Win Wagers in Horse Race Bets

Betting a horse to win has many advantages. The odds to win are the deciding factor in all our win wagers. We recommend “dutch” wagering when placing horse race bets. Dutch wagering is the wagering of two or more horses to win in the same race. Our clients are provided two horses to consider in the race we are recommending making a horse race bet. These horses will always have two traits. First we know something about the horse that the betting public doesn’t and both horses must have odds of at least 8-1 or more with two minutes till post. We have never had four, let alone six of these races in a row!

Placing Exacta wagers in Horse Race Bets

Exacta horse race bets are very popular at most race tracks. The exacta pools often rival the win pools at some race tracks. Exacta wagers we recommend are based on the following. We maintain extensive track profiles of the second place runners at all major and mid size tracks. Horses being used in the bottom of exactas are the horses that fit the currant profile of the race track. Primarily pace focused, the likely second place finisher profile changes drastically with distance,surface,and class. The profile of the horse most likely to finish second also changes many times thru out the year. The most likely second place horse in January maiden races does not fit the profile of a second place finisher in July maiden races. Most exacta horse race bets placed are simply the two horses the fan “likes” the most. This simply does not work. Statistically the post time favorite will be included in eighty percent of all exacta wagers. The Whitley Group exacta wagers focus on the false favorite that does not fit the profile of the second place finisher. When you can wager two horses on top, the same two we have win wagers on both at 8-1 or more and leave the post time favorite out of the exacta the exacta payoffs are substantial.

Trifecta Wagers in Horse Race Bets

Trifecta wagering is also recommended to our clients. The trifecta pools contain large amounts of uneducated money. Most of us know people that play birthdays, area codes, and other ridiculous methods for trifecta horse race bets. The Whitley Group recommends the trifecta wagers be placed as follows. Key both horses we have recommended as win wagers with the horses listed in the bottom of exacta wagers with the same horses in the third position. The track profiles that have proven reliable in predicting the second place finishers often include the third place finisher as well. We know of no reliable track profile in determining the likely third place horse. Some clients use the “all” button for the third position in their trifecta horse race bets.A trifecta wager that keys a horse at 8-1 or more and does not include the favorite is preferred.