Monthly Archives: May 2013

They “Fix” Horse Races, Don’t They?

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Very little has been written about actual horse race RESULT manipulation. Conversely a lot has been written about individuals accused of manipulating an individual race horse, normally in an effort to improve the horses performance.. Over or illegal medications get most of the press. These are two very different subjects. What follows is what I know to be truths regarding race result manipulation and manipulation of individual horses.

Are horse race’s fixed? Yes some are.
How many are fixed? More than you may think!
As a horseplayers, how can we wager and expect to win if the race is fixed? You can not win a race that is “fixed”.

I have been very fortunate to have spent many hours on the subject of race result fixing with some of the best “minds” in the horse wagering business. I have had the privilege of discussing the issue of result fixing with them. Here is what I have learned from them as well as my personal experiences with race result “fixing”. Trainers, jockeys, horse owners,and track personnel, are understandably unwilling to discuss the topic.

How are race results fixed? Jockeys fix most races.

Here is how it is done… The jockey colony at most race tracks is a very close knit group. Smaller and mid size tracks are the most often victims of race result manipulation. Large tracks are not immune however.

Often as many as 5 or more jockeys in a given race will agree, long before the race, that the favorite and the second choice will not “hit the board” in a particular race. Jockeys normally make two wagers. They purchase win tickets on the horse, or sometimes two horses that they know will be “allowed ‘ to win the race. The reason two horses are bet to win is because they realize something could go wrong with one horse or the other. One may “take a bad step” and not be able to complete the race, unseat the jockey, etc. Jockeys as you know, are not allowed to make wagers themselves. Family or friends make the wagers for them. Again this is a very close group. Sometimes they place their wagers at OTB’s or thru the internet but most often in person, at the track, at the wagering machines located thru out the track. Most are $20.00-$50.00 win wagers placed many times over. You maybe able to spot this type of race result manipulation in the inequities on the odds board with the morning line estimate. A horse listed as 10=1 on the ML that is sitting at 5-2 may be jockey money. It may not be. I will tell you how to tell the difference a bit later.

They also place trifecta wagers on the same race. Again using the auto machines, the trifecta ticket is often “boxed” leaving the favorite and the second choice off the ticket. Occasionally the horse(s) that have been bet to win are keyed in the trifecta but the preferred wager is the trifecta box. With the favorite and second choice OFF of the trifecta tickets. In normal wagering pools, 90% of the trifecta tickets will have the 1st and/or 2nd choice horses on the trifecta ticket. The other 10% of the trifecta tickets that do not include the favorite or second choice are the people betting favorite numbers, birthdays, zip codes, etc. and sometimes, jockeys!

A $2.00 trifecta that pays $200.00 with the favorite and second choice “out” is simply, race result manipulation.

Exacta “will pays” as well as daily double will pays are shown on the monitors at the track. Trifecta “will pays” are not shown on the track monitors,, More recently the superfecta has also become a victim of result manipulation as the superfecta will pays are not available on the track monitors. The post time favorite and second choice are often boxed in or stuck behind horses and do not hit the board. We at the Whitley Group watch dozens of replays daily, not for the troubled start or bad trip that’s available to anyone that purchases the Form, but for the trifecta that pays much less than it should with the favorite out. It is time consuming but we believe worth the effort. We wait anxiously for the horse or horses that were very short price at post time and were not allowed to run. We bet these horse next time out and make our clients aware the race they are exiting is suspect.

This is how we do it. Loran, a valued Whitley Group partner, may find three to five races per week that the trifecta payouts are out of line! After watching the replays Loran then brings the suspect race to my attention for my evaluation. An average of four races each week are “red flagged” as race result manipulation. This is a large number of races possibly being fixed. A lot of people lost a lot of money! There is no way I know of to be privy to this race result scandal prior to post time. If you happen to bet one of theses races your probably going to lose. We at The Whitley Group will let you know what race was suspect, which horses were not allowed to run, and when they are going to run again.

Next time I will tell you how, when, and where individual horses performances are manipulated and how we can profit from it.

Sorry its not in DRF “FORMULATOR” trainer stats.

Track Bias

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“Bias” is defined as giving an unfair advantage. Track bias is one of the newest “secrets” currently being proclaimed by modern horse players. Their never ending search for the secret to horse racing has taken many players down the “track bias” road.

Yes, American racing does favor early speed. Yes, some surfaces, wet one’s, CAN produce more wire to wire winners. Not because the surface is biased, but because the off the pace horses are often all but blinded by water and mud being thrown in their faces.

True “track bias” DOES NOT exist. Track maintenance people are too good at their jobs.

One, and only one rare exception…… Wet Turf Races. The maintenance crews can do nothing to a turf course between races.

Most races carded for the turf are, as you know, moved to the main track if the turf course comes up wet.

The primary reason for this is the turf course can be badly damaged if racing is conducted on a wet grass.

Back to the track bias of wet turf courses. There are two times when racing continues on wet turf courses.

Watch and wait for either of these two great wagering opportunities.

I will go into detail about each.

  1. The rain begins during the days races. When the rain starts and the days races are already underway, the scheduled turf races are much more likely to be allowed to continue on the turf if at all possible. If these races are moved to the main track, too many horses are scratched. The track has to deal with much less money wagered on these races! This is not something the track wants. If the days racing has already begun the track will allow turf racing when they normally would declare the days turf “off”‘
  2. The days featured race(s) are scheduled turf races. Turf racing is much less likely not to be canceled because of a wet turf course if the race or races scheduled for the turf are the days “featured” race(s). The reason for this is again simple economics and the fact many horses ship in for these bigger turf races.

It is the turf stars, the horses the tracks betting coustomers come to the track to watch run (and to bet on!) Once again the track wants the money people will bet on these featured turf races. A Grade 1 or 2 race has a large purse value. Money wagered on these races is how the purse money is collected.

Track bias is todays subject.  Wet GRASS surfaces are EXTREMEILY biased to front running or early speed horses! Please let the last sentence sink deep into your handicapping mentality. You will make a lot of money if you are conscience of this one, true track bias! There are several reasons the early speed horses often win wet turf races, often at huge mutuals.

#1 Wet grass is simply less tiring. The early speed often “skips’ along the wet grass and has enough left in the stretch to hold off the late runners.

#2 Turf horses, even more than dirt horses,are much less likely to want to move forward into the water, mud, and wet grass being thrown back into their face from horses in front of them. Turf horses do not race on wet grass often enough to be come use to it.

#3 Turf horses are often trained to run late.

#4 turf races are often handicapped to favor the late runners. Much has been written about the final quarter time or stretch time ability in handicapping turf races. Turf handicappers refuse to adjust to a wet grass surface and continue to handicap wet turf races as they do firm turf races and bet the late closing runners.

Here is how you do it….. Google “weather channel “and enter the zip code of the track or tracks racing today. You will be given an hour by hour break down of the weather for that day. Note any anticipated rain in the city the track is located. Next use the DRF entries for the day (the post time is for each race is listed) Any anticipated rain pryor to any scheduled turf races is noted. you may get a turf race or two in before the races are moved to the main track. Front running horses in theses races are easily spotted and can be backed with out further handicapping.

One additional thought on wet turf races. Races taken off the turf and moved to the main track are often decimated by scratches.

The race goes to the horse with decent dirt form or has proven ability on the dirt. He or she only needs to defeat handful of turf horses that remain in the dirt race so the race “goes”. Most are only only on the main track for a “work out” at the request of the racing secretary. Again the handicapping is quick and effective.

MTO (main track only) entries should be given careful consideration. Most small to mid size race tracks to not have MTO entries.

I have read,over the past 40 yrs., everything ever written on horse handicapping. I have never read or heard anyone mention wet turf races. Please invest the time and energy necessary to understand and apply this profitable handicapping angle. I personally use this important tool and have won many tournaments with wet turf races.

Call me for clarification or consultation.

– Ted Whitley